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1st Take: Aug-17 Traffic: Pax Traffic Growth Improved to 9.8% YoY

  • 机构: 摩根士丹利
  • 研究员: Qianlei Fan,Edward H Xu,JunYi Yu
  • 日期: 2019-09-18

白云机场(600004)

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport has released its August 2017 trafficnumbers.

Pax traffic growth improved slightly to 9.8% YoY, from 9.6% in Jul-17. In 8M17,pax momentum was robust at 10.3% YoY, above 6.4% in 8M16.

Aircraft movement strengthened to 7.0% YoY, from 5.3% in Jul-17, while dailylandings increased to 1,308 (vs. 1,272 in Jul-17). Average pax per aircraft alsoimproved to 143, from 141 in Jul-17. In 8M17, aggregate aircraft traffic increased6.8% YoY, higher than 5.1% in 8M16.

Cargo/mail volume growth accelerated to 8.6% YoY, from 5.0% YoY in Jul-17.YTD, cargo volume rose 7.0% YoY, stronger than 6.0% in the same period of2016.

Our price target of Rmb14.86 is derived from our probability weighted average ofscenario values. Our base case value is derived from DCF valuation. We assume a WACCof 10.8% based on a cost of equity of 11.2%, a cost of debt of 5.5%, and a consistenttarget structure of 85% equity and 15% debt. We use a beta of 1.0 on the basis of itstwo-year weekly beta from Bloomberg. We assume a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Our weightings for the bull, base, and bear case scenarios are 20%, 75% and 5%,respectively. We apply the highest probability (75%) to our base case scenario, givenGBIA's highly predictable cash flows and earnings outlook. We see a higher probabilityof our bull case playing out than our bear case, in view of sustained traffic growth andincreasing pricing power in the long run.

Key upside risks to our price target: 1) stronger-than-expected traffic growth driven byimproved efficiency; 2) better-than-expected non-aeronautical business development.

Key downside risks to our price target: 1) lower than expected traffic growth due tounfavorable weather or failure to increase peak hour landing; 2) higher than expectedlabour cost increase after T2 launching.

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白云机场
600004.SH
17.550.412.39%
2019-08-08 15:00:00
  • 今开:17.24
  • 最高:17.83
  • 成交量:11.89万
  • 昨收:17.14
  • 最低:17.24
  • 成交额:2.09亿

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